Bitcoin Faces Red October as On-Chain and ETF Signals Lean Bullish
Bitcoin is tracking toward a negative October while on-chain data, shifting volatility metrics, and ETF inflows highlight underlying strength.
Bitcoin Faces Red October as On-Chain and ETF Signals Lean Bullish
Bitcoin is tracking toward a negative October while on-chain data, shifting volatility metrics, and ETF inflows highlight underlying strength.
Navigating a Red October and Bitcoin Market Signals
Bitcoin is heading toward its second consecutive losing October, down 4.10% since the month began, according to BeInCrypto. Yet despite the monthly dip, four distinct Bitcoin market signals across price positioning, on-chain data, and macroeconomic factors continue to lean bullish.
Analytics firms Galaxy and Santiment have pointed to signs of a market bottom. At the same time, recent data from Glassnode indicates that short-term buyers have cooled off significantly after earlier profit-taking phases.
Volatility Declines Below Major Equities
A recent report from Grayscale Research places Bitcoin's one-year realized volatility at 43%, marking a notable decline from its ten-year average of 64% and an 81% reading from five years ago. Grayscale notes that Bitcoin is now less volatile than 57% of the companies listed in the S&P 500.
According to the research, Bitcoin's annualized volatility has dropped below household-name stocks and sector peers like Oracle, Honeywell, SanDisk, and even Coinbase, which posts a realized volatility of approximately 70%. Grayscale attributes this calming trend to deeper liquidity, broader institutional participation, and the growth of regulated investment products such as spot exchange-traded funds.
ETF Flows and On-Chain Realignment
US spot Bitcoin ETFs rebounded on October 26, pulling in $110.3 million in net inflows led largely by BlackRock’s IBIT. This recovery followed a volatile stretch that included $301 million in net inflows over the preceding week despite substantial late-week redemptions.
Concurrently, on-chain metrics from Glassnode show that the share of short-term holder supply sitting in profit has dropped to roughly 70%, down from near 100% in late September. This cooling off in realized profits and normalized exchange inflows suggests that recent buyers have largely stepped away from intense profit-taking, potentially establishing a healthier base for incoming market participants.
About The Author
